April 15, 2026

The LFPR for 16-24 year olds is projected to fall from 55.9% in 2024 to 53.6% in 2034, a 2.3 percentage point decline. This prediction is driven by a combination of demographic shifts, structural economic shifts, and changing social behaviors. 

Below are the most frequently cited reasons.  

Demographics

In a Wall Street Journal report on the decline of the U.S. labor force participation rate Gerald Cohen, a UNC finance professor and economist, and partner in Our State, Our Work, points out that the overall decline in participation is largely driven by the aging U.S. population entering retirement. As these people leave the workforce, there aren't enough new workers to offset the massive wave of retirees. 

Increased Educational Enrollment

Others note young adults are staying in school longer before working. As the economy shifts toward high-skill, tech-heavy roles, a high school diploma is often insufficient. Roles that once required "on-the-job training" now often require degrees, pushing entry into the workforce back by 2–4 years. As a result, young adults are spending more time in post-secondary education or specialized certification programs, rather than the labor force. 

The "Skills-Experience" Gap

Many entry-level jobs have evolved. Automation has eliminated some "routine" tasks young adults traditionally performed. If the "first rung" of the career ladder is removed by AI or automation, young adults may find it harder to get that initial foot in the door. 

Behavioral and Mental Health Shifts

There is a documented rise in social anxiety and mental health challenges among Gen Z and Gen Alpha, which can act as a barrier to traditional workplace environments. In addition, many young adults are more selective about work, prioritizing mental health and "meaningful" work over low-wage, high-stress entry positions. 

Why This Matters

Whatever the reasons, a lower labor force participation rate reinforces the importance of the “Our State, Our Work” program. As the labor force shrinks, every Opportunity Youth becomes exponentially more valuable to the economy.

The “Our State, Our Work” teams left us with 12 lessons they wanted to share with other communities seeking to re-engage Opportunity Youth (young people disconnected from school and work).

Build Connections and Trust 

1. Prioritize Personal Connections: Build trust by learning about the specific goals and hobbies for a young adult. Success often hinges on a mentor or advocate who helps navigate complex systems with a hyper-personal perspective. 

2. Practice Persistent Outreach: Recognize that barriers like lack of transportation or internet may make this population hard to reach. Other barriers might include low motivation of a lack of trust. Stay in touch via “low-stakes” check-ins for months or years until the young adult is ready to engage.  

Empower Young Adults to Lead

3. Facilitate “Early Wins”: Help youth achieve a quick success, such as a short-term certificate. This builds the confidence necessary for them to pursue longer-term goals.  

4. Compensate Youth for Their Time: Use paid work experiences or stipends for training. Financial compensation significantly improves program retention and completion rates as it mitigates against forgoing necessary income in order to upskill. 

5. Elevate Youth to Leadership: Involve youth in program design and outreach. Peer leaders are often more trusted by participants than staff members are.  

Create Sustainable Systems that Address Needs

6. Design Systems Around the User: Shift from “build it and they will come” to a model that actively removes barriers. Tailor services to the specific preferences and needs of the young adults rather than organizational convenience. 

7. Focus on Sustainability: Ensure solutions are flexible enough to survive changes in funding or personnel. A program must be able to provide consistent support despite shifting local contexts.  

8. Provide Wraparound Services: Address underlying “whole-person” needs—such as food security, childcare, and mental health—alongside education and employment services. 

Create a 360* Village through Partnerships

9. Engage Employers Early: Partner with local businesses to co-create apprenticeships and other work-based learning opportunities. Ensure a “match” between the youth’s interests and the employer’s needs to reduce turnover.

10. Seek Unexpected Partners: Look beyond the workforce and education sectors. Because the barriers youth face are interconnected, anyone from local nonprofits to non-traditional community groups can be vital partners.

11. Align Partner Goals: Create a shared vision or mission statement to unite diverse organizations that may have different internal capacities or motivations.

Measure Impact

12. Stay Organized and Data-Driven: Set shared goals and track outcomes meticulously. Use data to adjust your approach and clearly communicate what is working to your collaborative partners. Partners want to be part of a winning strategy. 

Carolina Across 100 is a five-year initiative whose goal is to aid community-driven recovery and build sustainable efforts in all 100 counties by providing human resources, data insights, coaching, facilitation, coordination efforts, and program design.